research

journal articles

1. Who Should Politicians Represent? How Winning an Election Influences Citizens’ Views on Representation

   Tim Lars Allinger

   (Just Accepted at The Journal of Politics)

   Abstract URL Replication

   Should elected politicians represent their own voters or all citizens, regardless of who they voted for? Though a fundamental question in representative democracies, we lack insights into citizens’ perspectives on this tension despite their essential role in democratic stability and legitimacy. I argue that while there is generally strong support for the idea that an elected politician should represent all citizens in their constituency (partisan surrogation), this support diminishes markedly due to self-interested considerations once citizens find themselves on the winning side of an election. Relying on a regression discontinuity design in close district races across three German national elections, I present quasi-experimental evidence in line with this argument. The findings indicate that many citizens expect partisan surrogation when losing without being willing to concede that to others upon an election victory. This highlights the need for a more dynamic perspective when studying citizens’ expectations of the representative system.

   

2. Social Desirability Bias In Online Surveys: An Experimental Assessment

   Daniel Bischof, Tim Lars Allinger, Kristian Frederiksen, and Morgan Le Corre Juratic

   (Conditionally Accepted at The Journal of Politics)

   Abstract Preprint

   Social scientists have long debated the extent to which social desirability bias affects online survey responses. We argue that the a priori most promising way to measure it is through a global manipulation at the survey’s outset. If effective, this approach allows researchers to (1) isolate social desirability from confounders, (2) verify manipulation success, and (3) assess effects across multiple outcomes. Using well-powered survey experiments in the United States and Denmark, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how social desirability can be successfully manipulated and to what extent it biases online survey responses. Our findings show that some treatments fail to induce perceptions of being observed, while others succeed but do not alter outcomes most likely to be affected by social desirability bias. Beyond offering guidelines for future research designs, these results imply that researchers should be less concerned of social desirability bias in online surveys than previously thought.

   

working papers

1. Do Exclusionary Policies Increase Hate Crimes? Evidence from the Nomad Camps in Italy

   Tim Lars Allinger

   (Available upon request)

   Abstract

   Hostility and hate crimes against immigrants and ethnic minorities are a persistent problem, which have surged again across Europe in recent years. Yet, the role of state policies in shaping such violence remains understudied. I argue that exclusionary policies targeting minority groups can legitimize hostility, increasing hate crimes not only against the targeted group but also against other minorities. To test this, I examine Italy’s nomad camps – institutionalized, mono-ethnic settlements for Sinti and Roma – using municipality-level hate crime data. Leveraging spatial spillover effects combined with an instrumental variable approach, I show that proximity to these camps increases hate crimes against individuals with a migration background. Notably, this effect extends beyond camp residents, suggesting a broader shift in intolerant actions rather than mere opportunity-driven violence. These findings highlight the consequences of exclusionary policies and underscore the state’s role in shaping intergroup relations, with implications for policymaking in societies grappling with rising anti-minority violence.

   

2. Is this my Last Resort? Understanding Public Support for Hate Crimes against Refugees

   Tim Lars Allinger

   (Available upon request)

   Abstract

   Violent attacks against refugees remain a pervasive problem – also because they enjoy notable public support, especially among far-right voters. Yet little is known about the political conditions under which anti-refugee grievances escalate into support for such violence. I argue that this support is not only driven by hostility toward refugees but also by perceptions of political unresponsiveness. Specifically, individuals are more likely to endorse violence when refugee policies are perceived as overly permissive and non-violent efforts as having failed previously, making violence appear as a last resort. To test this, I fielded a preregistered vignette experiment with 2,356 far-right voters in Germany, the group most susceptible to such violent appeals. The experiment independently varied local refugee policy and prior citizen protest, and then measured respondents’ endorsement of an attack on a refugee home. The findings confirm the argument: support for violence increases in response to permissive policies, but only when preceded by protest. The results have important implications for understanding how institutional behavior can shape public support for violence in polarized and migration-challenged democracies.

   

3. How Citizens Perceive Others: The Role of Social Norms for Democracies

   Daniel Bischof, Tim Lars Allinger, Morgan Le Corre Juratic, and Kristian Frederiksen

   Abstract Preprint

   Generations of political scientists seek to understand the relationship between citizens’ democratic values and democratic stability. The key premise of this research tradition is that democratic societies live on a “social consensus” over a set of democratic values; a democratic norm. Yet, until today scholarship has neither carefully theorized the role of nor measured the social nature of this consensus. Building on research in social psychology, we conceptualize democratic norms as social norms: citizens may think that most people in democracies support its institutions (descriptive norm) and also that one ought to do so (injunctive norm). We then measure these perceptions across 14 countries using nationally representative surveys covering 31% of the world’s population. We find that citizens have a strong perception of social democratic norms; however, mostly on abstract forms of support. Using a vignette experiment we also reveal that respondents’ preferences are conditional on their perception of social norms. Our research has important implications for research on democracy showcasing the role social norms play to craft democratic support in our societies.

   

4. Democratic Transgressions Embedded in Reality

   Kristian Frederiksen, Tim Lars Allinger, Morgan Le Corre Juratic, and Daniel Bischof

   Abstract Preprint

   Research on citizens and democratic backsliding has skyrocketed over the past decade. Most of this research has focused on why citizens might tolerate hypothetical undemocratic behavior carried out in the abstract by hypothetical actors. We present a theoretical framework and use a two-wave panel survey from six challenged democracies (the United States, Hungary, Poland, Brazil, Mexico, and India) to assess the consequences of this approach. In the first wave, we develop an alternative survey instrument based on real-world democratic transgressions and compare support for such transgressions to typical hypothetical behaviors. In the second wave, we construct an intervention to compare how easily support for real-world transgressions is moved vis-à-vis support for hypothetical transgressions. Our results show that support for real-world undemocratic behaviors is substantially higher but also easier to intervene against. Prior research may simultaneously have underestimated both support for undemocratic behavior and the prospects of intervening against it.

   

work in progress

1. Hate Crime Support Across 13 Countries

   Tim Lars Allinger, and Daniel Bischof
2. Political Reactions to Anti-Refugee Violence

   Tim Lars Allinger
3. Social norm interventions increase resistance to real-world anti-democratic elite behavior

   Kristian Frederiksen, Morgan Le Corre Juratic, Tim Lars Allinger, and Daniel Bischof
4. Can Populist Parties Increase Electoral Turnout? The Case of the M5S Movement in Italy

   Tim Lars Allinger, Daniel Bischof, Thomas Kurer, and Tarek Jaziri Arjona
5. Ballots and Backyards: The Influence of Objective and Perceived Income Mobility on Voter Turnout

   Tim Lars Allinger, Jonas Ineichen, Thomas Kurer, Lucas Leemann , and 1 more author